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Added: Tai Chea - Date: 30.12.2021 15:51 - Views: 11825 - Clicks: 4491

Research Social science UW News blog. The of people who live past the age of has been on the rise for decadesup to nearly half a million people worldwide. Such extreme longevity, according to new research by the University of Washington, likely will continue to rise slowly by the end of this century, and estimates show that a lifespan of years, or even years, is possible. The new studypublished June 30 in Demographic Research, uses statistical modeling to examine the extremes of human life.

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With ongoing research into aging, the prospects of future medical and scientific discoveries and the relatively small of people to have verifiably reached age or older, experts have debated the possible limits to what is referred to as the maximum reported age at death. While some scientists argue that disease and basic cell deterioration lead to a natural limit on human lifespan, others maintain there is no cap, as evidenced by record-breaking supercentenarians. Pearce and Adrian Rafterya professor of sociology and of statistics at the UW, took a different approach.

They asked what the longest individual human lifespan could be anywhere in the world by the year Using Bayesian statistics, a common tool in modern statistics, Oldest women i can find researchers estimated that the world record of years almost certainly will be broken, with a strong likelihood of at least one person living to anywhere between and years.

To calculate the probability of living past — and to what age — Raftery and Pearce turned to the most recent iteration of the International Database on Longevitycreated by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. That database tracks supercentenarians from 10 European countries, plus Canada, Japan and the United States.

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Using a Bayesian approach to estimate probability, the UW team created projections for the maximum reported age at death in all 13 countries from through As it is, supercentenarians are outliers, and the likelihood of breaking the current age record increases only if the of supercentenarians grows ificantly.

People who achieve extreme longevity are still rare enough that they represent a select population, Raftery said. Even with population growth and advances in health care, there is a flattening of the mortality rate after a certain age. In other words, someone who lives to be has about Oldest women i can find same probability of living another year as, say, someone who lives towhich is about one-half.

They die for reasons that are somewhat independent of what affects younger people. For more information, contact Pearce at mpp uw. If you're trying to subscribe with a non-UW address, please uwnews uw.

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Oldest women i can find

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